FOREX-Report: Risikofreude und USD-Schwäche – FOMC ...

Preparing for the Impulse - GBPUSD, Traps to Expect and Trades to Make

Preparing for the Impulse - GBPUSD, Traps to Expect and Trades to Make
Part One
Perquisite Posts;
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/
https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctyr3p/gbpusd_shaping_up_for_good_sell_but_not_quite_yet/

It will benefit your understanding of this to take some time to read through at least all of these post, and also my other ones. Over the last weeks I've introduced some concepts I think are useful, demonstrated how a person could use them to make profit and presented for consideration ways you can go and test if what I am saying is true in your trading. Now I am going to start to bring this all together to show you how a person can plan well ahead and be well prepared to profit in Forex.

Three weeks ago I gave a swing analysis on GBPUSD (as part of speaking about a broader idea of trend following). It said this.
https://preview.redd.it/q60ia0ophhi31.png?width=691&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf7495e47ea212e5f094bae232f49d700805579a
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clbxk2/shorting_noobs_common_trend_following_mistakes_im/

Long term bearish picture here of 1.190. An area I expect us to have a big move in possibly feature a 100 plus pip candle (dare I speculate ... news event, or random fundamental). We got into 1.199s, and then price started to stall.
I then explain by "ping swing" theory and pointed out all the indicators this ping swing was coming.

https://preview.redd.it/wsdjmcb9ihi31.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=8aad9d994b85d076397a6f07493a0d174012d144

https://preview.redd.it/oe7823ncihi31.png?width=756&format=png&auto=webp&s=91dd90e89bf8d3514e63fe0abd6ac6ecdeba26d1
When explaining what the ping swing was all about, I said it set up the really big move in the other direction. The breakout. What I more commonly refer to as the impulse leg.

https://preview.redd.it/bqd1nzmpihi31.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=e5a20bc5373448056b37b2fc155c7889ce7a3739
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/clx0v9/profiting_in_trends_planning_for_the_impulsive/

So based upon all of these factors I am prepared to trade a move that may be surprisingly strong from a really specific area (will get into trades later). Everything in my analysis form and strategies design allow me to be ready and position my trades to profit from some wild event there may be in the coming week or two weeks (maybe three ... four, eeek. I'm hedging). Now I'm not saying I know there is going to be a certain type of Brexit news ... I do not care. I'm not saying we should think it's very possible the FOMC spikes high and then fucking crashes (surely something to do with that illusive "pricing in" thing) ... I do not care. I am not predicting these fundamental events.

What I am saying is based upon the information I have shared with you so far, a person can design a trade plan that would position them for this sort of price action, and this sort of price action almost always happens when there's a news event. Got that? Think it's very possible there is a huge swing coming, entirely unrelated to any news events that may happen in the future that I could not know about now.

What sort of price action could we expect ... ?

We already have the trade plan for that last week.
https://preview.redd.it/ymsbcbc7khi31.png?width=723&format=png&auto=webp&s=77468b23e015a36b2fffc693f7a899facd7b82e1
Source https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ctyr3p/gbpusd_shaping_up_for_good_sell_but_not_quite_yet/

GBPUSD closed near the high on some of my brokers but crashed 30 pips in the last minute of the day on another, and this probably means it's opening up gap low. Exactly what we'd expect.

Why?

https://preview.redd.it/uai4g2blkhi31.png?width=893&format=png&auto=webp&s=df1c62af4605534a942753a5a311c28f8ae6b1ac
Do this experiment, find this double top pattern. Find the "confirmation" move I explained, and then honestly think where you'd set a stop "safe above the highs" here. Count how many pips it went past that. Probably about 5 - 7 and then crashed. That's the trap.

Lays the next trap. For this let's recap the traps I've shown you and see where we are in the cycle of possible mistakes.

https://preview.redd.it/2mkipd82lhi31.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=bc48f68d785cef1a46c3d4e96fbe675c2cf056dd
Last week I said we were at the transition from black to blue. Then "the news" made that happen. Then late in the week I said look for spike out trend continuations. All this happened.
So selling into that event was either devastatingly unlucky, there was nothing you can do about it and it is what it is if it happens again (frequently). Or, it was selling mistake #2 (shown as 4 here near the low)
https://preview.redd.it/4xrmb3pilhi31.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=825bc81b68fc5a465b65d87634f7888a4be87c97
What do we have after selling mistake number #2. Selling mistake number #3 (no need to re-invest the wheel).
#3 is a 5 (just to be confusing), and this is "deep correction" selling mistake. Would you think it would be fair to agree anyone selling the double top like move we've discussed here would have made the mistake of thinking a deep correction was a trend continuation? People will have. They do every cycle. This is why I can "predict" it. Or, it's lucky and there's no way you can know. Pick your flavor.
Mistake #4 . Single candle price action. In this case I am forecasting this to be the crash pre-close (on some brokers) or the gap down (a gap is just a big swing). This looks like the real deal on the trend continuation. People will sell into this early in the week. It may be in the form of a big gap down, it making it's low early in the week and then people sell the gap fill (or part retrace). Anyway, the better trade is on the other side of this. We have not yet hit the 61.8 fib and this sort of sell off would be a "known" seller trap.
#5 tends to form when price first hits the 61.8, There is an immediate and dramatic sell off. Then there is a spike out of the 61.8 and the real trend move begins. We should watch for this sort of action Tue/Wed and should expect to be seeing it (very specifically) close to 1.2343.
Which is no surprise to see shaping up since this specific PA is what I started speaking about when it was at the lows.
https://preview.redd.it/frstw4dinhi31.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=97b635c00a004352b990e322524d48400b809888

So if we see these further confirms;

1 - Price spikes/gaps down and then returns aggressively to the high
2 - Price hits 61.8 and falls quickly
3 - These things happen in the immediate foreshadow of a news event (FOMC?)

All of these things would be consistent with things that happen before the following scenario:

1 - News is released. It's unexpected. Either the number is off, it was random (tweet etc) or the market just moved totally different from how it would be expected to (cue theories to fill gaps).

2 - Price moves rapidly up. It makes a "new breakout" of a "key level", and then capitulates. 100 + pips can be moved in very short periods of time.

3 - After this move has happened, there is a sharp low made and we uptrend for the next few weeks.

I am not "predicting the future", but this is a viable trade plan for the coming week(s). We sell GBPUSD 1.2340 area. Stop 1.2410 or so. We target 1.1900. Then we look for the market to make a low (after a very volatile fall) in the 1.1850 sort of area. As a rule of thumb (and I am not being flippant, this is true), if you see people in forums asking what just happened, that will probably be your cue to go and find this trade on your chart. This is a regular indicator.

I think if this is to happen this week, the high will be made Wed/Thurs and crash late week. If it's not to happen this week, a ranging week may be ahead. Even a couple weeks. These would not invalidate the analysis, for the market to range a few weeks to form a "strong high" and then do this take out move I've described is also something to be expected. I would be surprised to not see GBPUSD drop 300 pip from the high in coming month.

Prepare for the Impulse!
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88 Structure of the Federal Reserve System

88 Structure of the Federal Reserve System
About the Federal Reserve System
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States.
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It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve
conducts the nation's monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy;
promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad;
promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole;
fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and
promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.
Read more in the 10th edition of Federal Reserve System Purposes & Functions.
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Figure uses a pyramid of graphics to describe the Federal Reserve System. Top level: There is 1 U.S. Central Bank: the Federal Reserve System. Second level: The 3 Key Entities of the Federal Reserve System: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee. Third level: The 5 Key Functions of the Federal Reserve System: conducting the nation's monetary policy, helping maintain the stability of the financial system, supervising and regulating financial institutions, fostering payment and settlement system safety and efficiency, and promoting consumer protection and community development.
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The Decentralized System Structure and Its Philosophy
In establishing the Federal Reserve System, the United States was divided geographically into 12 Districts, each with a separately incorporated Reserve Bank. District boundaries were based on prevailing trade regions that existed in 1913 and related economic considerations, so they do not necessarily coincide with state lines.
Twelve Federal Reserve Districts operate independently but with supervision
Federal Reserve District boundaries are based on economic considerations; the Districts operate independently but under the supervision of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
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Federal Reserve Banks
01-Boston
02-New York
03-Philadelphia
04-Cleveland
05-Richmond
06-Atlanta
07-Chicago
08-St. Louis
09-Minneapolis
10-Kansas City
11-Dallas
12-San Francisco
Board
The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city.
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In the 12th District, the Seattle Branch serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The Board of Governors revised the branch boundaries of the System in February 1996.
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As originally envisioned, each of the 12 Reserve Banks was intended to operate independently from the other Reserve Banks. Variation was expected in discount rates--the interest rate that commercial banks were charged for borrowing funds from a Reserve Bank. The setting of a separately determined discount rate appropriate to each District was considered the most important tool of monetary policy at that time. The concept of national economic policymaking was not well developed, and the impact of open market operations--purchases and sales of U.S. government securities--on policymaking was less significant.
As the nation's economy became more integrated and more complex, through advances in technology, communications, transportation, and financial services, the effective conduct of monetary policy began to require increased collaboration and coordination throughout the System. This was accomplished in part through revisions to the Federal Reserve Act in 1933 and 1935 that together created the modern-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
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The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (Monetary Control Act) introduced an even greater degree of coordination among Reserve Banks with respect to the pricing of financial services offered to depository institutions. There has also been a trend among Reserve Banks to centralize or consolidate many of their financial services and support functions and to standardize others. Reserve Banks have become more efficient by entering into intra-System service agreements that allocate responsibilities for services and functions that are national in scope among each of the 12 Reserve Banks.
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The U.S. Approach to Central Banking
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act purposely rejected the concept of a single central bank. Instead, they provided for a central banking "system" with three salient features: (1) a central governing Board, (2) a decentralized operating structure of 12 Reserve Banks, and (3) a combination of public and private characteristics.
Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with private-sector entities, the Federal Reserve was established to serve the public interest.
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There are three key entities in the Federal Reserve System: the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors, an agency of the federal government that reports to and is directly accountable to Congress, provides general guidance for the System and oversees the 12 Reserve Banks.
Within the System, certain responsibilities are shared between the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., whose members are appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate, and the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, which constitute the System's operating presence around the country. While the Federal Reserve has frequent communication with executive branch and congressional officials, its decisions are made independently.
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The Three Key Federal Reserve Entities
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Board of Governors), the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) make decisions that help promote the health of the U.S. economy and the stability of the U.S. financial system.
Three key entities, serving the public interest
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act developed a central banking system that would broadly represent the public interest.
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CONGRESS graphic positioned above the three key Federal Reserve entities' graphics: 'CONGRESS oversees the Federal Reserve System and its entities.' A dotted arrow leads down to the BOARD graphic: 'BOARD OF GOVERNORS is an independent agency of the federal government.' A dotted arrow leads right from the BOARD graphic to the BANKS graphic: 'FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS are the operating arms of the Federal Reserve System and are supervised by the Board of Governors.' Dotted arrows lead left from the BOARD and BANKS graphics to the FOMC graphic: 'FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE consists of the members of the Board of Governors and Reserve Bank presidents. The Chair of the Board is the FOMC Chair.
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Other Significant Entities Contributing to Federal Reserve Functions
Two other groups play important roles in the Federal Reserve System's core functions:
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depository institutions--banks, thrifts, and credit unions; and
Federal Reserve System advisory committees, which make recommendations to the Board of Governors and to the Reserve Banks regarding the System's responsibilities.
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Depository Institutions
Depository institutions offer transaction, or checking, accounts to the public, and may maintain accounts of their own at their local Federal Reserve Banks. Depository institutions are required to meet reserve requirements--that is, to keep a certain amount of cash on hand or in an account at a Reserve Bank based on the total balances in the checking accounts they hold.
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Depository institutions that have higher balances in their Reserve Bank account than they need to meet reserve requirements may lend to other depository institutions that need those funds to satisfy their own reserve requirements. This rate influences interest rates, asset prices and wealth, exchange rates, and thereby, aggregate demand in the economy. The FOMC sets a target for the federal funds rate at its meetings and authorizes actions called open market operations to achieve that target.
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Advisory Councils
Four advisory councils assist and advise the Board on matters of public policy.
Federal Advisory Council (FAC). This council, established by the Federal Reserve Act, comprises 12 representatives of the banking industry. The FAC ordinarily meets with the Board four times a year, as required by law. Annually, each Reserve Bank chooses one person to represent its District on the FAC. FAC members customarily serve three one-year terms and elect their own officers.
Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC). The CDIAC was originally established by the Board of Governors to obtain information and views from thrift institutions (savings and loan institutions and mutual savings banks) and credit unions. More recently, its membership has expanded to include community banks. Like the FAC, the CDIAC provides the Board of Governors with firsthand insight and information about the economy, lending conditions, and other issues.
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Model Validation Council. This council was established by the Board of Governors in 2012 to provide expert and independent advice on its process to rigorously assess the models used in stress tests of banking institutions. Stress tests are required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The council is intended to improve the quality of stress tests and thereby strengthen confidence in the stress-testing program.
Community Advisory Council (CAC). This council was formed by the Federal Reserve Board in 2015 to offer diverse perspectives on the economic circumstances and financial services needs of consumers and communities, with a particular focus on the concerns of low- and moderate-income populations. The CAC complements the FAC and CDIAC, whose members represent depository institutions. The CAC meets semiannually with members of the Board of Governors. The 15 CAC members serve staggered three-year terms and are selected by the Board through a public nomination process.
Federal Reserve Banks also have their own advisory committees. Perhaps the most important of these are committees that advise the Banks on agricultural, small business, and labor matters. The Federal Reserve Board solicits the views of each of these committees biannually. More on https://www.freeforex-signals.com/
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some helphul common terms for forex traders

Common terms:

submitted by livmarsh1992- to u/livmarsh1992- [link] [comments]

WEEKLY TRADES THREAD 18sept2016-23sept2016

I'M BACK BABY!!
Alright, Forex denizens, you asked for it, so here it is: The return of the trades thread!
Submit your analysis for the upcoming week within. Here's the mandatory criteria:

This thread died in the past due to lack of use. If you want it to thrive, you need to fill it, so keep it going, traders!

ALL OF YOU SHOULD HAVE A CALENDAR
This week: The big bear in the room is the FOMC! Everyone's favorite person, Janet Yellen (see sidebar), will be making big announcements. FOMC hits Wednesday, starting at ~ 1400 EST, so be aware. Remember that the USD touches everything. As always, Forex recommends exiting the market prior to the FOMC, it really can be a bastard of an announcement with nasty whipsawing in every direction. Don't gamble, trade.

GOOD HUNTING

submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

Two important dates

Normally, I would not post this as we should all be adults and know how to use a forex calendar and read the news. However, a rash of posts both here and abroad on the net that essentially are asking how to get megapips off of the Brexit vote have me concerned, so here we are. Also, people seem to be overlooking the big elephant in the room, the June FOMC.
Short version:
WED JUNE 15 1400 EST FOMC STATEMENT Whether you like it or not, the USD touches everything you do, like those bad decisions you made in University.
THURSDAY JUNE 23 UK BREXIT VOTE This really could be underwhelming.... or it could be horrific.
If you are a n00b, stop trying to get rich off of the Brexit vote. You need to concentrate on successful, positive trades, not big wins. Go gamble if you want that rush. The Brexit vote is one of those events that can cause such precipitous damage to accounts that Brokers are limiting retail leverage and raising margin rates: (from Oanda)
Dear Huachi
During events such as the upcoming Brexit referendum, market movements can be significant leading to the potential for large profits, but also large losses. To help ensure our customers are more insulated from such movements, we will be temporarily lowering the maximum leverage available on GBP pairs to 20:1 after the market close on June 17, 2016. The affected pairs will return to prior leverage levels after the market close on June 24, 2016.
As a result of this change, you may need to close trades or add funds to your account or risk a possible margin closeout if you currently have an open GBP positions with higher levels of leverage and do not have enough funds in your account to cover the increased margin requirements. To determine the impact this change may have to your margin, you can use OANDA’s margin calculator.
Margin rates on pairs not containing GBP will not be affected.
If you have any questions, you can contact our Client Experience Team whenever markets are open.
Regards, The OANDA Team
And FOMC? The June FOMC is not just any FOMC, it will really be a bellwether for 2016 for the Fed's direction with interest rates until election and Christmas. Will they stick to their word and raise rates? Or change course and have a flat rate, showing their weak hand? There are estimates in both directions (some showing preciptious cliffs, some showing seismic movements back and forth), but again, unless you are confident in your analysis, market intel, and skill set, pay attention because the June FOMC has a potential for a radical whipsaw.
I'll take this down in a few days, it is not a soapbox, but there is some real shit in the market right now that has capacity to wipe out accounts. Noobs watch out, you pros too!
~Huachi
submitted by El_Huachinango to Forex [link] [comments]

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